A Closer Shouldn't Come Close

It always amazes me when baseball pundits suggest a relief pitcher over a position player for Rookie of the Year, which is what I’ve seen a few times in writers’ picks for midseason NL Rookie of the Year.  In this case it’s Craig Kimbrel over Danny Espinosa.  Let’s have a look.

Kimbrel has arguably been the best closer in the National League for the first half—an amazing accomplishment for a rookie.  He currently leads the NL with 31 saves, has a microscopic ERA of 2.16 but shouldn’t even be part of the conversation.

Espinosa is currently hitting just .236, fourth worst among qualifying NL second basemen.  His defense is slightly below average at 2B (albeit a difficult defensive position).  Yet when it comes down to Espinosa versus Kimbrel, the latter should garner zero votes.  Why?  Because he plays just 22% as many plays at Espinosa.  The idea of giving Kimbrel the award is almost akin to giving the NFL ROY to a kicker.

Kimbrel has faced 201 batters this year.  Espinosa has 420 plate appearances.  So right there, Espinosa’s impact on the season of his team is twice as large. Espinosa also plays defense, however, where he has had 477 chances to make an out.  So Espinosa has been directly involved in a play where a batter either makes an out or gets on base 897 times compared to Kimbrel’s 201.

So why are the experts missing this?  I think one reason is the save.  This artificial stat rewards players who make the 25^th, 26^th and 27^th outs of the game rather than outs 7, 8 and 9.  In reality each half inning represents the same three outs.  Espinosa is involved in more than four times as many outs.

Finally, I guess I should mention why Espinosa is in the ROY discussion.  Only two 2B in baseball have hit more dingers than Espinosa’s 17, he had the most HRs by the All Star break by a rookie 2B ever, and he leads his team in RBI.  Espinosa for ROY!